Should Intel Be Worth $1 Trillion? Jim Keller Thinks So—and He’s Against Splitting It Up

Should Intel Be Worth $1 Trillion? Jim Keller Thinks So-and He's Against Splitting It Up

Imagine Intel, the chip giant that powered the PC revolution, hitting a $1 trillion valuation. Sounds crazy, right? Not according to Jim Keller, a legendary chip designer who's worked at Intel, AMD, Apple, and Tesla. In a recent X post, Keller claimed that a "great" Intel should be worth $1 trillion-nearly 10 times its current market cap of $102 billion. Oh, and he's not a fan of the idea of splitting Intel's design and manufacturing businesses either, calling it a "fire sale" that throws away shareholder value. So, what's behind Keller's bold vision, and should Intel stay whole or break apart? Let's dive in.

Intel's Rollercoaster Ride

Intel's story is one of highs and lows. Back in 2000, during the dot-com bubble, its market cap hit $184 billion, fueled by a stock price of $42.85 and about 4.3 billion shares post-split. It was the king of microprocessors, a Silicon Valley titan. Fast forward to today, February 2025, and Intel's market cap sits at just $102 billion-a steep fall from its glory days. Competition from AMD and TSMC, plus some internal stumbles like weak earnings and layoffs, have taken their toll.

Now, Intel's leadership is mulling a big move: splitting its chip design and manufacturing (foundry) businesses into separate entities. Rumors swirl about TSMC or Broadcom snapping up parts of the operation. But Keller? He's not buying it.

Keller's $1 Trillion Dream

Jim Keller isn't just any critic-he's a semiconductor rockstar. In his X post on February 18, 2025, he wrote, "I think a great Intel is worth $1 trillion. Seems a little careless to throw it away." Earlier, he added, "you build value by having a great goal and a team that loves working to the goal. Intel built the fastest CPUs on the best process. This is not unlocking shareholder value, it's a fire sale."

A $1 trillion valuation is wild when you consider Intel's current $102 billion market cap. That's a 10x leap! Keller seems to believe Intel can reclaim its throne by sticking together and leveraging its integrated model-where design and manufacturing work hand-in-hand to spark innovation. Split them up, he warns, and you're just selling off the crown jewels at a discount.

To Split or Not to Split?

Intel's potential breakup isn't a new idea. The company has already taken steps to separate its Intel Foundry Services (IFS) into a standalone unit, aiming for more transparency and flexibility. TSMC, a $1.1 trillion behemoth, and Broadcom are reportedly eyeing the foundry business. But is this the right move? Let's weigh the pros and cons.

Why Splitting Might Work

Laser Focus: A standalone foundry could hone in on manufacturing, chasing efficiency and outside clients like TSMC does. Meanwhile, the design team could double down on creating cutting-edge chips.
Hidden Value: Separating the businesses might let the market see their worth more clearly-especially if the foundry can rival TSMC's dominance.
New Opportunities: A solo foundry could strike deals with other tech giants, bringing in fresh revenue and reducing Intel's reliance on its own designs.

Why It Could Backfire

Lost Magic: Keeping design and manufacturing together lets Intel fine-tune chips fast. Split them, and that synergy could vanish, slowing progress.
Chaos Factor: Dividing a massive company like Intel could shake up its culture, confuse employees, and disrupt operations.
Short-Term Trap: Separate entities might chase quick profits over risky, game-changing R&D-the kind Intel needs to hit Keller's $1 trillion mark.

Politics and Power Plays

There's a wild card here: politics. With the Trump administration floating 100% tariffs on chips from Taiwan (home to TSMC), any deal involving foreign players like TSMC could hit a wall. National security and economic stakes are high in the chip world, and that could force Intel to rethink its strategy-or at least who it partners with.

What's Next for Intel?

Keller's vision of a $1 trillion Intel hinges on it staying whole and rediscovering its mojo. Historically, Intel's peak of $184 billion in 2000 shows it can climb high when it's firing on all cylinders. Today's $102 billion valuation reflects tough times, but Keller sees a path back to greatness-one that doesn't involve a breakup.

So, should Intel split or stay united? A split might juice short-term value and sharpen focus, but it risks losing the long-term edge Keller believes in. If Intel can rally its team around a "great goal," as Keller puts it, maybe that $1 trillion dream isn't so far-fetched after all. The semiconductor race is heating up, and Intel's next moves could define its legacy-and the tech world's future.

My Take: Unity vs. Division

I'm torn. On one hand, splitting Intel could unlock some cash and let each part play to its strengths. Imagine a foundry pumping out chips for everyone, not just Intel's designs-it could be a game-changer. But Keller's got a point: Intel's superpower has always been its ability to dream up chips and build them under one roof. That tight loop fueled the x86 era and could still drive breakthroughs. Breaking it apart feels like betting on short-term gains over long-term glory.

Look at TSMC-it's a manufacturing titan, but it doesn't design chips. Intel's integrated approach could be its edge if it plays its cards right. A $1 trillion valuation sounds lofty, but if Intel nails next-gen tech-think AI chips or quantum computing-Keller might not be so crazy.

The Bottom Line

Intel's at a crossroads. Jim Keller's $1 trillion vision is a call to arms: stay united, aim high, and rebuild that innovative spark. Splitting up might make sense on a spreadsheet, but it could dilute what makes Intel special. With TSMC and AMD breathing down its neck, and political winds swirling, Intel's choice will ripple far beyond Silicon Valley.